Date | Fixed Historical Pct |
---|---|
May 1, 2005 | 3.5 |
November 1, 2005 | 3.2 |
May 1, 2006 | 3.7 |
November 1, 2006 | 3.6 |
May 1, 2007 | 3.4 |
November 1, 2007 | 3 |
May 1, 2008 | 1.4 |
November 1, 2008 | 1.3 |
May 1, 2009 | 0.7 |
November 1, 2009 | 1.2 |
May 1, 2010 | 1.4 |
November 1, 2010 | 0.6 |
May 1, 2011 | 1.1 |
November 1, 2011 | 0.6 |
May 1, 2012 | 0.6 |
November 1, 2012 | 0.2 |
May 1, 2013 | 0.2 |
November 1, 2013 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2014 | 0.5 |
November 1, 2014 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2015 | 0.3 |
November 1, 2015 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2016 | 0.1 |
November 1, 2016 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2017 | 0.1 |
November 1, 2017 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2018 | 0.1 |
November 1, 2018 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2019 | 0.1 |
November 1, 2019 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2020 | 0.1 |
November 1, 2020 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2021 | 0.1 |
November 1, 2021 | 0.1 |
May 1, 2022 | 0.1 |
November 1, 2022 | 2.1 |
May 1, 2023 | 2.5 |
November 1, 2023 | 2.7 |
May 1, 2024 | 2.7 |
November 1, 2024 | 2.6 |
We believe in the power of prediction markets to be a good tool for forecasting unknown future events.